The Cycle 2/17/2012

The Cycle 2/17/2012


NM-SEN: Close Race in New Mexico

Rasmussen shows what everyone other than PPP has been showing: Former Rep. Heather Wilson is locked in a tight race against Rep. Martin Heinrich. Wilson was able to hold on for a decade in a difficult district (now represented by Heinrich) so the I'm inclined to believe these numbers. 

OH-SEN: Sherrod Brown Huge Favorite In Ohio

Quinnipiac shows a huge lead (48-35) for incumbent Sherrod Brown in a seat Republicans desperately want to wrestle away from the Democrats. I expect this one to tighten up as the election gets closer but for now it continues to slide down the list of competitive senate races


CO-6: D's Lose Challenger

Following an FEC complaint filed by the Colorado Republican Party, Dr. Perry Haney abandoned a bid for the U.S. House. This leaves the Democrats with State Rep. Joe Miklosi, a candidate who's fundraising has been mediocre so far. Team Blue's desire to put this seat into play took a major step back with the departure of a self-funder and the DCCC will need to bankroll the majority of an advertising blitz.

IA-3: Latham Cries Foul

One of the advantages of strong fundraising is the ability to saturate the airwaves early to define your opponent. Tom Latham's two million dollar cash on hand advantage allows him to hit the airwaves in February with adds like this. Crying foul against the attacks being made against him might not seem like the silver bullet, but this ad will go unanswered by Boswell and build the narrative Latham wants. This type of strategy wins close elections.

IL-10: Brad Schneider's Chances Of Winning the Primary

Surprise, surprise a candidate in a primary releases an internal poll showing he is in good shape. In our under two months to go until the primary update, Brad Schneider released a poll showing him leading IIya Sheyman 29-14. This is one of the most interesting primaries in Illinois.

MA-4: Return of the Kennedys: Camelot Strikes Back

After a two year hiatus, America's obsession can continue if Joe Kennedy is elected to Congress. He'll be running for Barney Frank's seat and is heavily favored. Once in office, he can continue the family tradition of frat boy behavior gleefully swept under the rug by the press. Maybe they leave there unconscious mistresses to drown in icy waters or drive around D.C. strung out on prescription drugs but they have such good hearts.

OH-9: Kucinich Locked in Fight For Political Life

Roll Call has an interesting piece on the match up between Reps. Dennis Kucinich and Marcy Kaptur. Geographically, the electorate favors Kaptur. Nevertheless, Ohio has been a fan of sending quirky populist Democrats to Congress and Kucinich is going to be much more difficult to defeat due to his independent streak. 


NC-GOV: Miller's Departure Sets Field

While there are technically two weeks until the filing deadline, the odds of a major entrant shaking up the field are pretty slim. Rep. Brad Miller was the last upper echelon candidate to make a decision and he chose to pass leaving the Democrats with Lt. Governor Walter Dalton, former Rep. Bob Etheridge and State Rep. Bill Faison. Republicans are absolutely favored to pick up the Governor's mansion in North Carolina.

WI-Recall: EMILY'S List and Unions Back Falk

Good news for Walker fans. Emily's List becomes the latest organization to endorse Kathleen Falk in the recall effort. Former Milwaukee Governor Tom Barrett is a stronger candidate but he isn't beloved by the base and they seem determined to back a dyed in the wool liberal to unseat Walker. Not the best strategy.

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