The Cycle 3/26/2012

The Cycle 3/26/2012


GOP Primary: Romney Continues To Win Majority Of Delegates

Romney and Santorum each won a primary this week, but Romney has once again captured the majority of delegates available last week. It's reaching a point where Romney is darn near unstoppable since he's banked so many delegates already. I don't expect Romney to win every primary from here on out, but I think he's going to sweep the Winner-take-all states in April.


CT-SEN: Shays Far More Competitive Than McMahon

Sometimes a race comes down to the primary (remember the Deleware Senate Primary in 2010?). Having already cost the GOP a chance at taking the seat in 2010, Linda McMahon's money and "conservative" rhetoric might be able to cost the party a chance in 2012 as well. Former Rep. Chris Shays has the reputation of being a RINO but we're talking about Connecticut, not Alabama. Long story short, Linda McMahon leads the GOP primary in a recent Quinnipiac poll 51-42 but Chris Shays is neck and neck with the D's in the General while Linda McMahon trails badly.

NV-SEN: Berkley Faces Ethics Investigation

The last thing a member of congress campaigning for higher office wants to see is an ethics probe. Even if you are innocent, there is no good that comes from this. At the very least, allegations Rep. Shelley Berkley abused her office to direct funds to her husbands kidney medical practice are an unwelcome distraction. At worst, she could see her campaign unravel if wrongdoing comes to light.

VA-SEN: Allen's Busted Bracket

George Allen's bracket was posted on his campaign website and it is littered with errors. It looks like Allen filled out his bracket quickly and made some changes without realizing they would effect his bracket in subsequent rounds. Perhaps we should be comforted in the knowledge a politician isn't spending hours and hours on a March Madness pool.


IN-5: Club For Growth Backs McIntosh

Former Rep. David McIntosh received a huge boost with the backing of the Club For Growth. The field is crowded and some CFG dollars will go a long way to securing the GOP nomination in a fairly safe Republican district. 

NRCC: Targeting Democrats On Medicare

Both party's congressional committees are consistently targeting the opposition with media buys of some sort, but the NRCC's latest round of robocalls gives insight into their overall strategy. 10 incumbents and 3 challengers were targeted but 6 New York Democrats were targeted. Reps. Bishop, Higgins, Hochul, Israel, Owens and Slaughter are each receiving in coming fire. 

Clearly, the national party sees an opportunity to pick up seats in the Empire State and are making the appropriate investments.  

NC-8: Kissell Leads, Under 50%

I don't understand the logic of releasing an internal poll showing yourself under 50% against relatively unknown opposition, but Rep. Kissell has done just that. Sitting at 46% against both former congressional aide Richard Hudson (36%) and State Rep. Fred Steen (35%). The incumbent has always been a weak fundraiser but more than makes up for it with electoral strength.

WA-1: Burner Gets Union Endorsement

Washington Republicans are overjoyed by news items like this one: Darcy Burner received the endorsement of the local Ironworkers Union. While she's beloved by the netroots, she's something of a joke in Western Washington. The rest of the Democratic field is not weak and it would make a pickup opportunity a lot easier if the D's opt for Burner.

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