The Cycle 3/28/2012

The Cycle 3/28/2012

POTUS

Gingrich: ABC Considers Pulling Embedded Reporter

Reporters are usually assigned to cover newsworthy events and Mr. Gingrich's campaign functions haven't met this criterion since the Florida primary. ABC is considering pulling their embedded reporter and assigning him to a more relevant news story. 

Obama: Epic Flub On Open Mic

President Barack Obama was caught telling on a live mic Russian President Dmitry Medvedev he would have more "flexability" to negotiate after the elections. This underscores the narrative on his "weak" foreign policy and will stir up concerns about what he'll do after the election. 

Foreign policy concerns won't decide the election but they will, nonetheless, present an unwelcome challenge this fall.

Obamacare: Rough Testimony in Supreme Court

I'm not a lawyer, so my opinion carries very little weight in this regard, but I'm surprised how poorly the testimony has gone for the administration. If the constitutionality of the law is ruled on in one piece, rather than line by line, I think it gets overturned 5-4. This would probably be the best of all worlds for Obama's re-election prospects because it would take repeal off the table.  It would turn a losing issue for Democrats into a jumpball, not a bad consolation prize after you get your signature legislative accomplishment overturned.

Wisconsin: Five Point Lead In Wisconson Cause For Concern

President Obama has seen his support decline amongst white voters and Wisconsin, while a traditionally progressive state, is full of white voters. Marquette University is showing Obama ahead of Romney 48-43 (down from 48-40 in January). Democrats do not want Wisconsin to be a battleground state because it will shift 10 EV's away from the "we should win these" column and force them to play defense.

Senate

MA-SEN: Boston Mayor Tom Menino Not Backing Elizabeth Warren

Very troublesome optics for netroots hero Elizabeth Warren: Democratic Mayor of Massachusetts' largest city is "staying neutral" and leaving the door open to a possible endorsement of Scott Brown. Warren, like Martha Coakley before her, runs the risk of preaching to the more elitist choir while losing the state's working class voters. Massachusetts is packed with D leaning independent voters and Brown has found a way to bridge the divide.

MI-SEN: "Spend-It-Now" Controversy Appears Over

Media consultant Fred Davis understands how to play the game. His ads are usually criticized for their blunt presentation or seemingly out of place imagery but they are usually effective in conveying the intended message. After running around like chickens with their heads cut off screaming "RACISM", Democrats are greeted by a GOP poll showing the race within 5 points (45-40). The significant factor here is the fact the race has closed from a 15 point gap. Michigan is going to be another fiercely contested battleground.

NE-SEN: Republican Victory Appears Inevitable

The most favorable pollster for Democrats, PPP, released a survey showing Republican Attorney General Jon Bruning trouncing former Senator Bob Kerrey 54-37. More troublesome for Team Blue is Kerrey's inability to crack 38% against the two other Republicans in the race. Sometimes a race is simply out of reach, and while Kerrey is his party's best bet, I'm not expecting much drama in this race.

OH-SEN: Rasmussen Shows Tied Race

Our Democratic friends will caution us to not put too much stock in Rasmussen's numbers. Nevertheless, they have a good record as a pollster and have a way of spotting trends before their contemporaries. Their most recent survey is showing Treasurer Josh Mandel tied with Sen. Sherrod Brown at a time when PPP is showing Brown up 11. Except this to tighten up now that we have the general election match-up set in stone.

Gubernatorial

WA-GOV: McKenna Challenges Inslee to 15 Debates

Did he stutter? I didn't think so.

WI-GOV: Barrett Sitting On Stacks of Cash

Tom Barrett currently has $453,000 in his campaign account for mayor. This would be transferable to his run for governor, should he decide to do so, provided he declares before April 3.

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