The Cycle 4/10/2012

The Cycle 4/10/2012

Michigan: EPIC Shows Race Narrow

Folks who play the stock market use a simple trick to spot trends, find stocks making new highs and new lows. One new high is often, even if their is a brief consolidation period, followed with another higher high. The same holds true with new lows. 

Barack Obama set a new low (with a 47-43 lead), in blue collar Michigan according to the latest EPIC poll, which showed him leading 48-40 in January.

Last year, this very pollster showed Romney ahead for most of the year and it has given the GOP it's most favorable results. However, for my purposes, I'm only paying attention to polling the year of the election.

Romney: Pulling Ads Targeting Santorum While Bella Is Hospitalized

There comes a point in almost every presidential primary where the inevitable victor realizes his energies should be spent on slaying his next foe, rather than beating on the opponents who refuse to drop out. Mitt Romney is at this point.

Mitt Romney decided to pull a very harsh ad reminding Pennsylvanians of Santorum's 17 point defeat in 2006 because Bella Santorum has been hospitalized. The second ad the NY Times features has Romney in general election mode, focused on his business experience and desire to get government streamlined. This is a better strategy long term than nasty attack ads against a native son.

Nothing will rally the GOP like focusing attacks on Barack Obama, so to the extent Mitt Romney decides to go negative, he should be focused on the president.

Senate

MA-SEN: Warren Hauls 6.9 Million

Elizabeth Warren's 1st quarter fundraising is the largest number I have seen for a candidate from a state with 11 electoral votes. By far. 2.5 million comes from bay staters, meaning 4.5 came from out of state. At this race, Scott Brown's cash advantage will rapidly deteriorate making finances a push.

Warren is actually raising so much money, I wonder if she is sucking the life out of the fundraising efforts of other Democrats nationwide. How many 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 dollar donations have flown to Warren that would have otherwise gone to different races? How much of her money has come from expanding the donor base. The former is expensive, but positive, while the former is an inefficient use of donor dollars. 

I think Warren spends way to much time trying to get the netroots to love her more, but as a fundraising strategy it's proving to be successful. Don't confuse the ability to rake in thousands of out of state dollars with the ability to win votes in Massachusetts. 

NM-SEN: Martin Heinrich Raises $490K

Considering he faces both a competitive primary and general election, Rep. Martin Heinrich's 1st quarter fundraising seems incredibly weak. Because he faces the lesser known State Treasurer Hector Balderas, he should have the money advantage in the primary. However, 80% of his money was raised in state so national donors are overlooking this race for now.

The winner here is former Rep. Heather Wilson who gets to stockpile cash while receiving fundraising help from national figures like Sen. Lisa Murkowski. 

TX-SEN: Getting Nasty In Lone Star State

Dick Armey, former House Majority Leader and founder of Freedom Works, is going after Lt. Governor David Dewhurst for benefiting from daddy's money. Dewhurst's father died at age 3 and, understandably, he's pretty PO'd by these attacks.

Both sides are correct here: Dewhurst has benefited from his families wealth even though I'm sure he'd rather have known his father better. Primaries in safe seats can be some of the nastiest contests you'll ever see. This looks like no exception.

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