The Cycle 4/18/2012

The Cycle 4/18/2012

POTUS

Florida: Obama up 5

I find myself scratching my head at the stream of polling showing a resurgent Barack Obama in Florida. He's slipping in national tracking polls, so sooner or later this will need to translate into the state by state races. Nevertheless, they are moving in the opposite direction with Obama leading 50-45 in the Sunshine State.

Wisconsin: Romney pulls within 6

PPP's Wisconsin numbers seem out of place with their other numbers because they are actually being weighted for who is expected to actually show up to the polls in the recall elections. As a result, Mitt Romney only trails the president by a 44-50 margin. I can buy this a lot easier than I can some of the other data PPP has tried to feed the public in recent weeks.

Senate

IN-SEN: National Review Picks Mourdock

With the endorsement of National Review, Richard Mourdock has cemented his case to the primary voters of the Hoosier State: Sen. Dick Lugar is out of touch. Lugar is going to lose this primary.

WI-SEN: Tommy Thompson Overtakes Baldwin

Thompson 47, Baldwin 45. Thompson now holds a lead in everyone's polling.

Gubernatorial

WI-GOV: Walker at 50% against All Opponents

Sorry Dems, Gov. Scott Walker is poised to not only survive but thrive under threat of recall. As long as he remains at 50% he'll be hard to beat.

House

MD-6: Delaney Internal Shows Lead

Roscoe Bartlett is starting to look like a victim of redistricting efforts to cost him his seat. Businessman John Delaney released a poll showing him ahead 48-39 in the general election. Bartlett will need to work for this one, and I seriously question the fire in his belly. 

WA-1: DelBene Wins Two Major Endorsements

Having spent the last 12 years being represented in one form or another by both Rep. Rick Larsen and Gov. Christine Gregoire, I can say it comes as no surprise to see the two empty suits back former Microsoft Executive Suzanne DelBene. Both candidates call themselves moderates but govern like dyed in the wool liberals. DelBene appears to be cut from a similar cloth. A true moderate like State Sen. Steve Hobbs wasn't going to stand a chance at winning establishment support.

Misc.

WI-Recalls: Republicans Lead All Recall Trail Heats

Labor's attempts to remove the legislators who supported Walker's budget is looking like a disaster. Republican's are coasting to in three of four match ups while they are leading 48-46 in SD-13. The recall elections are looking more and more like a countdown to Scott Walker's vindication.

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