The Cycle 4/19/2012

The Cycle 4/19/2012

POTUS

National Polls 4/18

CBS/NYTimes- Obama 46, Romney 46

Daily Kos/SEIU (PPP)- Obama 50, Romney 44

Gallup- Romney 48, Obama 44

Rasmussen- Romney 47, Obama 43

Once again, PPP is showing it's roots as a Democratic pollster. While literally every other pollster is showing the race trending toward Romney, the Daily Kos/SEIU's designated propaganda minister is desperately trying to concoct a new narrative. Last month's numbers seemed closer to the truth: Obama led 48-44. But in the past month, Mitt Romney has vanquished his primary rivals and focused his fire on Obama. Candidates usually receive a post-primary bounce, but the true believers on the left want us to believe the inverse has happened. I'm just not buying it.

New Hampshire: Romney with Narrow Lead

Dartmouth's Rockefeller Center released a poll showing Mitt Romney with a narrow 2 point lead (44-42), marking the first time this year Romney has led in the state. Surprisingly, New Hampshire's polling has been scarce because if the election is as close as some believe (not your humble author, of course), New Hampshire's four electoral votes could decide the next president.

New York: Obama Remains Safe

New York is an extremely important state for the upcoming congressional elections, so this is a state we should monitor closely in the coming months. Obama's margin of victory could determine the fate of numerous candidates. According to Marist, Obama leads 57-35 (down from 58-35 in January). Romney needs to best John McCain's 36.7% of the vote in the Empire State or else he could become a drag on the rest of the ticket.

Senate

FL-SEN: PPP Decides Nelson Up 10 Points

Someone has hooked these people up with good pharmaceuticals. They are jumping for joy at DKE even though nothing has changed in this race since fall. I guess getting stoned and doing political analysis beats coping with reality. Nelson is still in for a tough race.

IN-SEN: Mourdock's Victory Blueprint

In a few weeks, Sen. Dick Lugar is going to lose the Republican primary to state Treasurer Richard Mourdock prompting predictable chatter from talking heads. Let me make this really simple for everyone: Lugar will lose because he's acted entitled and out of touch from the get-go. Antagonizing your party's base and carpetbagging because you don't live in the state where you are running in a "throw the bums out" environment encourages voters to put you out to pasture. Lugar's arrogance will cost him his job.

OH-SEN: Mandel Hits the Airwaves

I know it seems early to be spending over $500K on TV, but Josh Mandel understands the race dynamic quite well. Ohio will be a polarized battleground state this fall: Republicans will vote for Republicans, Democrats will vote for Democrats and Independents will decide the outcome. 

After Labor Day, indifferent voters will be overwhelmed by the sheer quantity of political ads and tune out. The time to make a positive impression is now. 

VA-SEN: Allen Shad Planking His Way Back To DC

Forget his snake-bitten 2006 campaign for a minute and remember the fall of 2005: Sen. George Allen was considered a presidential contender. Reading about his performance at the Shad Planking event in Wakefield, VA yesterday reminds us why. Allen gave a well received speech, fielded questions from the crowd and signed plenty of autographs. He capped off the event by presenting a $2500 check to the Wakefield Ruritans, a charitable organization, and told them to use the donation for the good work they are doing. This type of retail politics makes a huge difference in elections and helps rehab his image. All this while his Democratic rival former Gov. Tim Kaine ignored the event entirely.

House

AZ-2: Barber v. Kelly in AZ-8 Special

Round 2 to be waged in November.

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