The Cycle 4/24/2012

The Cycle 4/24/2012

POTUS

National Tracking Polls:

Gallup: Obama 47, Romney 44

Rasmussen: Romney 47, Obama 44

Arizona: Toss Up?

One of my favorite headline grabbing tricks is the inclusion of abnormally high amounts of undecideds in polls to make it appear like a race is closer than expected. The Merrill/Morrison Institute poll released yesterday, shows Barack Obama within two points of Mitt Romney in Arizona (42-40). This is quite compelling, but only if the story ends here.

I find it hard to believe 18% of registered voters are truly "undecided" as of this moment. Most are leaning one way or another. All these folks have done is included more "leaners" into the undecided column instead of supporting an actual candidate. The reality is that Romney is in much better shape because Arizonans are much more inclined to support a Republican than a Democrat. The same logic applies in a D-leaning state with high numbers of undecideds, they favor Obama.

Senate

MA-SEN: Warren Defines Herself

Elizabeth Warren is tapping her massive warchest to the tune of $770K to run a positive bio spot. As I said with Josh Mandel in Ohio, this is a good move on her party, because this race will be decided by Independents and defining oneself early can make the difference in a close race.

PA-SEN: Primary Preview

Businessman Tom Smith is the favorite to win the GOP primary today, but the field is so unknown, we just might see an upset by former State Rep. Sam Rohrer. His 2010 failed bid at the GOP nomination for governor has given him a smidgen of credibility with the electorate. Given the rest of the fields obscurity, it could be enough for him to win a shocker.

WV-SEN: Raese's Gaffe

I forgot to include Republican candidate John Raese's gaffe into yesterday's cycle. The businessman and 2010 nominee compared anti-smoking laws to the stars of David the Nazi's made Jews wear during the holocaust. Furthermore, Raese isn't backing down from his statement. 

Gubernatorial

NC-GOV: Etheridge Up On TV

Former Rep. Bob Etheridge is out with an add failing to mention the former Rep. portion of his bio. This illustrates the weakness of his candidacy, he was washed out in a wave by a weak challenger because he attacked a couple of college students filming him. He won't escape the stigma of the incident and I think he's going to struggle to win the Democratic primary.

House

PA-4: Republican Primary A Clash Between Corbett and Toomey

Two figures are fighting for superiority in the Pennsylvania GOP, with York County Commissioner Chris Reilly backed by Sen. Pat Toomey and State Rep. Scott Perry supported by Gov. Tom Corbett. The winner will be favored in the general election, so the outcome isn't significant in the battle for control of Congress, but it is always interesting to see which faction is more powerful within a state party.

PA-12: Altmire/Critz Showdown Too Close To Call

This race is an opportunity for labor to flex it's muscle in the primary by getting Rep. Mark Critz over the top against moderate Rep. Jason Altmire. Critz is something of a throwback: a socially moderate Democrat pro-union who is representing demographics who are rapidly fleeing to the GOP. The general should prove to be equally challenging for the winner, but the winner will have their GOTV in working order.

PA-17: Holden in Trouble

Rep. Tim Holden is a blue dog who was placed in a district well to his left in redistrict and Tuesday could spell his end. He faces trial lawyer Matt Cartwright, who is well funded. Since the seat is safely Democratic, I'm rooting for Tim Holden to pull this out. If you can't win a seat, the next best step it have a Democratic incumbent who will annoy progressives.

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