The Cycle 7/4/2012

The Cycle 7/4/2012

Senate

MO-SEN: Claire McCaskil has decided her re-election strategy will be "you know you'll love Obamacare". Probably an unwise strategy in a red state.

NE-SEN: The Nebraska Democratic Party is running ads telling voters State Sen. Deb Fischer refuses to raise taxes. Fischer should send them a thank you note. This ad attempts to paint her as an insider, but former Sen. Bob Kerrey dwarfs her in that category.

OH-SEN: Josh Mandel has reserved an astounding 4.2 million worth of ad time this fall. For a challenger to make a reservation this large is a massive show of strength. 

House

CA-3: The NRCC is targeting Rep. John Garamendi as part of a $43K cable buy. Garamendi snagged 51.4% of the vote in the primary, but this race is still a second tier pick up opportunity for Republicans.

CA-7: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Dan Lungren for wanting to repeal Obamacare. Lungren is locked in a very difficult race for re-election against Dr. Ami Bera.

CA-9: The NRCC is targeting Rep. Jerry McNerney for supporting Obamacare as part of a $43K cable buy. While the district is hostile to the GOP, Ricky Gill has a great biography and is a dynamic fundraiser.

CA-24: The NRCC is targeting Rep. Lois Capps for supporting Obamacare as part of a $43K cable buy. Capps received a smaller percentage of the vote than her Republican rivals in the primary and Abel Maldonado, as the state's former Lt. Governor and son of an immigrant from Mexico, is a strong candidate.

CA-36: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Mary Bono Mack for wanting to repeal Obamacare. Ruiz did very poorly (41.9-58.1) in his head to head match up with Mack in the primary and this is probably a vote of confidence from the national folks to fire up local donors.

FL-22: Add another $400K to the pile. Former West Palm Beach mayor Louis Frankel, already sitting on a mountain of cash, posted another monster quarter. This makes five straight quarters of $300,000 or more.

IL-10: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Bob Dold for wanting to repeal Obamacare. In a 63% Obama district, this could have a significant impact

IL-11: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Judy Biggery for wanting to repeal Obamacare. She faces former Rep. Bill Foster, who voted for Obamacare, so Democrats might as well embrace their candidates stance.

IL-13: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rodney Davis for wanting to repeal Obamacare.

IL-17: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Bobby Schilling for wanting to repeal Obamacare.

MD-6: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Roscoe Bartlett for wanting to repeal Obamacare. Roscoe Bartlett is perhaps the most endangered incumbent this cycle.

NC-8: Rep. Larry Kissell is refusing to back Barack Obama in 2012. Kissell's betrayal in a swing state runs the risk of tearing the base apart and suppressing turnout. I sympathize with the predicament of being a Democrat in a red district, but these ploys usually result in a negative synergy hurting both candidates.

NY-18: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Nan Hayworth for wanting to repeal Obamacare. Here is the most perplexing purchase, as Hayworth isn't vulnerable on this issue (and her district isn't very Democratic).

NY-19: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Chris Gibson for wanting to repeal Obamacare. I realize they need to make an effort against the freshman congressman, but Gibson isn't especially vulnerable other than the 53% Obama district.

NY-24: The DCCC is spending an undisclosed amount of money on robocalls against Rep. Anne Marie Buerkle for wanting to repeal Obamacare. Here is another first tier opportunity for Democrats, who lost the seat in a fluke.

OH-16: The SEIU is out with a poll touting a 41-38 lead for Rep. Betty Sutton (D) over Rep. Jim Renacci. I'm always skeptical of internal polls, especially internal polls in congressional races (which are especially difficult to poll), but this is a critical race for control of the US House and it is going to be close. 

PA-3: Tucked away in our House ratings page is the acknowledgement of the theoretical vulnerability of freshman Rep. Mike Kelly in a district McCain only carried by a 52-46 margin. Missa Eaton doesn't look like a very strong challenger, only raising a meager $84,403. Without a Democratic wave, Eaton is only offering token resistance and the race is being upgraded to "Safe Republican".

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