The Live Cycle 7/11/2012

The Live Cycle 7/11/2012

1:40 PM PST- IA-3: Rep. Tom Latham continues to build a cash advantage over fellow Rep. Leonard Boswell. After raising $500,000 to his opponents $300,000 this quarter, Latham enjoys a four to one cash advantage. This forces the DCCC and outside organizations to invest heavily here.

1:18 PM PST- VA-SEN: Kaine (D) 46, Allen (R) 44 PPP

The polling in this race has been remarkably consistent, but the ray of sunshine for Allen is the favorability of the two candidates: Kaine's favorability is 43/38 while Allen's is 39/42. Kaine's biggest asset has been his likability contrasting with the more polarizing Allen, but this indicates a shrinking advantage.

12:59 PM PST- FL-SEN: The internet is buzzing about the Rasmussen poll showing Rep. Connie Mack thwomping Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson (46-37).

Rasmussen has been all over the map on this race with Nelson up 47-36 in April, Mack up 7 (43-36) in March, and tied at 41 in Feb.

I don't dismiss any of these numbers, but think they have a lot more to do with Nelson's weakness as a challenger than they do with Mack's strength as a candidate. If the Mack Attack can present himself as a viable candidate, he wins. If Nelson can portray him as a looney tune, Mack loses. It's that simple.

12:36 PM PST- WI-SEN: Businessman Eric Hovde released an ad "attacking" himself for his opposition to government waste. It's quirky and effective.

10:55 AM PST- Wisconsin: PPP finds Barack Obama with a comfortable 50-44 lead over Mitt Romney. It's PPP so take it with a grain of salt.

10:42 AM PST- IN-SEN:

Rep. Joe Donnelly's campaign hits Treasurer Richard Mourdock for being a rigid ideologue in his first campaign ad.

10:38 AM PST- ME-SEN, ME-1, ME-2: Critical Insights conducted a poll for the Portland Press Herald and they found Democrats poised to do well. Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 49-35 and appears poised to capture it's 4 electoral votes.

In the senate race, Angus King only holds a 55-27-7 lead over Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat Cynthia Dill.

Chellie Pingree is sitting comfortably ahead of Joe Courtney in the first district 57-31. The second district shows a potentially competitive race between Michael Michaud and Kevin Raye 47-35.

10:15 AM PST- VA-SEN: Being the former head of the DNC has it's fundraising advantages. Tim Kaine raised 3 million last quarter and has 2.5 million in the bank, despite purchasing 3.5 million in ads for the fall. George Allen raised 2 million in the same period.

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