The Cycle 7/19/2012

The Cycle 7/19/2012

POTUS

Florida: Mason Dixon's toplines are fine for Obama, showing a 46-45 lead for the president, but the the internals are not encouraging.

  • 54% of voters think the country is on the wrong track
  • 34/41 of voters think he's helped/hurt the economy
  • 46/50 approval/disapproval
  • 52% of voters oppose Obamacare
  • Independents narrowly favor Obama 46-41

Barring a change in these numbers, I don't see how Mr. Obama carries Florida. Fortunately for Democrats, they don't need to win the Sunshine State to be victorious.

New Jersey: Quinnipiac University's Maurice Carroll instructs us to "cross New Jersey off any swing state lists". Mr. Obama leads Mr. Romney 49-38. 

New Mexico: I had all but written off New Mexico as 5 electoral votes in Barack Obama's column but PPP is showing a much closer race than previously expected. PPP shows a 49-44 lead for Obama (April showed a 54-40 Obama lead).

The most interesting tidbit I saw  Romney's cutting his deficit with Hispanics from 37 points to 22 points. If he can close this gap further to under 20 points, he can carry this state.

Ohio: Mitt Romney was in Bowling Green, Ohio yesterday continuing his attacks on Obama's misunderstanding of the private sector. Unlike recent trips to GOP strongholds, today's visit targets genuine swing territory where the GOP must have success if they hope to carry Ohio. Sandusky, Ottawa and Wood counties are areas where McCain underperformed Bush. 

If this in an indicator of Romney's Ohio strategy, Republicans should feel good about their chances. He has identified the parts of the state trending towards the class warfare message of the Democrats, and he's making a concerted effort improve his standing.

Virginia: Rasmussen- Obama 47-Romney 46

Senate

NJ-SEN: Despite the rough numbers in Quinnipiac's latest poll (Menendez leads Kyrillos 47-34), Republicans shouldn't write off this seat. A grassroots effort to reach out to exurban and suburban voters could cause this race to tighten up.

House

AZ-9: A pair of big endorsements in an open seat race: Bill Clinton backs Andrei Cherny and Trent Franks endorsed Paradise Valley Vernon Parker. Both Cherny and Parker are considered the favorites to win their party's nomination.

MI-11: Want to see the perfect ad for a write in campaign? Nancy Cassis is trying to win the primary to replace Thad McCotter after he failed to collect enough valid signatures to make the ballot.

NJ-1: Sometimes the impact of a news story won't be felt until the next election cycle, but the House Ethics Committee will be investigating the fundraising practices of Rep. Rob Edwards. His Republican opponent is only providing token resistance and he's already clear of the primary, but his ethics difficulty could foreshadow an open seat in 2014.

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