The Cycle 7/30/2012

The Cycle 7/30/2012

Missouri: Mason Dixon released a poll showing a safe lead for Mitt Romney (51-42). Romney is ahead because he's built a massive advantage in the rural parts of the state while keeping St. Louis and Kansas City close. It's not a surprise, but it's a nice development.

Pennsylvania: Our nation's economic woes, not Mitt Romney's tax returns will be the critical factor in deciding the election. Susquehanna finds Obama's lead at 46-43, down 2 points in the last month. Nevertheless, Romney's favorability is underwater here 39-41 and this works against closing the gap.

Senate

MA-SEN: Why Scott Brown survives in two ads.

First, a Scott Brown receives the endorsement of former Boston mayor Ray Flynn (D). The message is straight-forward: Scott Brown is someone Democrats can trust and it's ok to vote for him.

Next, we have Elizabeth Warren demonstrating her inexperience. She decides to remind everyone of her and the president's "You didn't build that" comments. Then, she tries to make a clever point about high unemployment and a need for infrastructure investment: lets kill to birds with one stone. Elizabeth, YOUR PARTY HAS BEEN RACKING UP TRILLIONS IN DEBT IN THE NAME OF SO-CALLED STIMULUS, why didn't you invest in roads and bridges rather than handouts to liberal interest groups.

MO-SEN:Claire McCaskill might want to lock in lower rates on moving companies after looking at all the latest Mason Dixon poll. She trails Jim Brunner by 11, Sarah Steeleman by 8 and Todd Akin by 5.

ND-SEN: Every year you see this commercial: A group of "regular folks" sitting around a table having a very unnatural conversation about how so-and-so is out of touch. Here's Rick Berg's contribution to the cliche.

House

CT-5: Here's another race where ethics is the x-factor. For the record, there is no smoking gun linking Chris Donovan to the investigation in question but he will probably suffer from the allegations against his former staff. 7 people, including Donovan's former campaign manager and finance director, have been indicted in a federal investigation of an attempt to funnel illegal campaign contributions to the Donovan campaign in exchange for influence over some taxation measures (hint, they wanted more of it).

Donovan addressed reporters with a "my vote is not for sale" and left before they could ask questions.

Gubernatorial

MO-GOV: Good news for Democrats. Even though Obama and McCaskill are in trouble in the Show-Me-State, Gov. Jay Nixon is poised to win re-election.

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