The Cycle 8/3/2012

The Cycle 8/3/2012

Presidential

Colorado: Mitt Romney spent the day campaigning in Golden, Colorado. He's spending a lot of time and money on Colorado recently and clearly sees an opportunity to pick up 9 electoral votes.

Florida, Virginia: Barack Obama was at campaign events in both Winter Park, FL and Leesburg, VA. Orange County, FL and Loudoun County, VA are critical swing counties in swing states. Expect lots of action in these counties in the next three months.

Americans for Prosperity: The Koch Bro's superPAC has dropped 23 million dollars to be spent on advertisements in 11 states in the next month: CO, FL, IA, MN, NC, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI.

Notable additions:

  • Minnesota- not considered one of the more competitive states this cycle
  • New Mexico- Do to his poor performance with Hispanics, the conventional wisdom puts New Mexico out of Romney's reach
  • Pennsylvania- A polarized state where there are few persuadable voters.

Notable exclusions:

  • Michigan- The state is considered the most competitive of the upper midwest states. 
  • New Hampshire- Bordering Massachusetts, Romney is expected to be competitive here.

Media Purchases: The top 10 media markets for July 30- August 5 (Gross rating points)

1. Cincinnati, OH (Obama 1600, Romney 1100, Crossroads 880, RNC 190, ROF 275)
R: 2445, D: 1600

2. Richmond-Petersburg, VA (Obama 1300, Romney 1200, Crossroads 895, RNC 215, ROF/200, Priorities/170)
R: 2510, D: 1470

3. Reno, NV (Crossroads 1500, Obama 1200, Romney 700, RNC 150, ROF 120) 
R: 2470, D: 1200

4. Columbus, OH (Obama 1300, Romney 1000, Crossroads 700, RNC 200, ROF 200, Priorities 200)
R: 1900, D:1500

5. Colorado Springs, CO (Obama 1250, Romney 975, Crossroads 620, RNC 240, ROF 225, Priorities 140)
R: 2060, D: 1390

6. Las Vegas, NV (Obama 1100, Crossroads 1100, Romney 775, RNC 200, ROF 120)
R: 2195, D: 1100

7. Cleveland, OH (Obama 1400, Romney 800, Crossroads 450, RNC 215, Priorities 200, ROF 150) 
R: 1615, D: 1600

8. Norfolk-Portsmouth, VA (Obama 1100, Romney 1000, Crossroads 720, RNC 200) 
R: 1920, D: 1100

9. Denver, CO (Romney 1100, Obama 700, Crossroads 575, RNC 300, ROF 300, Priorities 250) 
R: 2275, D: 950

10. Roanoke Lynchburg, VA (Obama 1000, Romney 900, Crossroads 700, RNC 200, Priorities/180)
R: 1800, D: 1180

Be grateful you aren't in one of these markets. This is a lot of spending…

Senate

FL-SEN: How the mighty have fallen. Charlie Crist, just three short years ago, seemed like a future US senator. This was back when Crist called himself a conservative. Then, in the face of a primary defeat, he decided to run as an independent. Now, he's trying to re-invent himself as a Democrat. He's endorsed Bill Nelson and is rumored to be considering a bid for Governor.

Before our friends on Team Blue get too excited about this possibility, remember Crist isn't the popular Republican governor with an independent streak. His actions over the past couple of years are seen as transparently political. As such, I'm not sure he's the best candidate Democrats can field.

MA-SEN: Scott Brown is going to continue to beat the "you didn't build it" comments by Elizabeth Warren until election day. It's a good wedge issue to win the support of the disproportionately large percentage of independent voters in Massachusetts.

VA-SEN: George Allen and Tim Kaine have agreed to 3 debates this fall: Sept. 20 in McLeon, Oct. 8 in Richmond and Oct. 18 in Blacksburg.

House

CA-9: Dueling internal polls show either A) the race is a dead heat or B) the incumbent is cruising to re-election. 

Rep. Jerry McNerney has won three competitive races (2006, 2008 and 2010) but Ricky Gill is something of a wunderkind and could pick this seat up.

CA-24: Scandal Alert! The Daily Caller reports Rep. Lois Capps failed to disclose rental income on a room in her house for over ten years. This one appears to have legs because Capps has been hounding her opponent former Lt. Governor Abel Maldonando to release his tax returns. 

Capps now finds herself attempting to explain allegations that could be a violation of Congressional ethics rules.

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