The Cycle 8/14/2012

The Cycle 8/14/2012

Missouri: Barack Obama received some good news in the Show-Me-State. He trails Mitt Romney 44-45 according to Survey USA, but this is much closer than other recent polling has shown. I don't  believe Obama carries Missouri unless it's a route, but data points like this might force Romney to spend money to sew it up.

New Hampshire: WMUR/UNH- Obama 49 (49), Romney 46 (45)

Another swing state is looking competitve.

Pennsylvania: T.J. Roomey, chair of the PA Democratic party in 2008, warns not to take Ryan lightly. He cites the high number of independent and swing voters who feel it is time to shake things up. Former Gov. Ed Rendell says Ryan is a likable figure. They think Obama will still carry Pennsylvania, but the praise is nice.

MI-SEN: America has many things I'd change in a perfect world, and a repeal of the 17th amendment is something I'd entertain, but focusing on this as a senate candidate doesn't help. These arguments should be help in a purely academic environment, not during a senate race.

MO-SEN: Survey USA shows Missouri as the Republicans second easiest pick up. Rep. Todd Akin, a candidate for whom Democrats ran "attack ads" designed to help, leads incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill 51-40. Akin's strength in the St. Louis region, where he only trails 43-48, gives McCaskill no region where she can run up her numbers. This would make a victory on her part almost impossible.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again, Todd Akin is probably the strongest candidate the GOP could have run. Never mess with a primary unless you know you can beat the guy in the general.

MO-GOV: The final stop on the Survey USA tour de Missouri is the gubernatorial race. Gov. Jay Nixon leads Dave Spence 51-37. Nixon has separated himself from the rest of the D ticket, winning 24% of Akin and 21% of Romney voters. 

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